000
FXUS61 KRNK 070809
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
309 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASICALLY A TEMP FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN ELONGATES BACK INTO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT.
STRENGTHENING W/SW FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
BOOST TEMPS A GOOD 5-10 DEGS THIS AFTERNOON ESPCLY GIVEN 85H VALUES
WARMING TO 10-12C AND HEATING OF DRY AIR. WITH BEST WARMING ALOFT
IN THE WEST AND RIDGE OVERHEAD EARLY ON IN THE EAST EXPECT UNIFORM
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. WILL INIT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SWATH
OF HIGH CLOUDS PER WEAK S/W APPROACHING FROM THE NW OTRW DRY AIR AND
AFTERNOON SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.

OVERALL SINKING MOTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY. HOWEVER TEMPS A LITTLE MORE TRICKY PER
LINGERING JET AND WARMTH ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE THE VALLEYS SHOULD
AGAIN DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FALLS INTO THE LOW/MID 30S WHILE
THE RIDGES STAY QUITE MILD WITH SOME MIXING PERSISTING. SINCE A
GOOD 15-20 DEG DIFFERENCE POSSIBLE BETWEEN VALLEYS/RIDGES USED A
BLEND OF THE COLDER MAV IN THE LOW SPOTS/VALLEYS AND THE WARMER
MET WITH INCREASING ELEVATION.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BECOME MILDER AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL BE COMMON WITH LOW TO MID 40S THE NORM MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE WATCHING TWO FEATURES FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO RETURN TO THE AREA...AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM IDA HEADING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
BOTH THE 07/00Z GFS AND THE 06/12Z ECWMF SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE THE BULK OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE MAKES IT
INTO THE REGION. WILL FOCUS CHANCES FOR THE BEST POPS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE REACHING THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT ITSELF WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA ALSO...BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE. WILL HAVE THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS EXITING THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SHUNT ALL DEEP MOISTURE TO THE SE WED NIGHT
INCLUDING WHATS LEFT OF IDA AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NW ON THU. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH LARGE
DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPS AGAIN ESPCLY BY THU/THU NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE
ABOUT OVERHEAD. NEXT FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROF WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NW BY FRIDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING AROUND THE DEPARTING RIDGE OFFSHORE. THIS MAY BRING A
FEW PRE-FRONTAL SHRA TO THE SW DURING FRIDAY BUT GIVEN SUCH HIGH
HEIGHTS WILL OPT TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS
POINT. OTRW LEFT TEMPS BASICALLY STATUS QUO AS STILL IN LINE WITH
THE LATEST MEX MOS FOR NOW.

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES CLOSE TO THE AREA MOVING OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL APPS OVERNIGHT IS GOING TO BRING
A LITTLE BIT OF CI/CS BUT NOTHING OF NOTE. SW WINDS IN THE 8 TO
12 KNOT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED AT MOST TAF SITES AFTER 17Z SAT.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO BRING ANY SORT OF WEATHER THREAT TO THE
AREA WILL NOT ENTER THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. AT
THAT TIME...CLOUDS AND LOWERING CIGS CAN BE ANTICIPATED. UNTIL
THEN EXPECT NEAR CLOUD FREE CONDITIONS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY MINIMUMS OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...JH/REB/WP
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JH/RCS
AVIATION...REB/WP
FIRE WEATHER...